Growth Forecasts and Policy Uncertainty: Implications for Portfolio Adjustments
A few days ago the IMF published its annual forecasts for developed and emerging economies. Five things are worth pointing out: First, when we review forecasts made for previous years it becomes obvious that the IMF is overestimating growth potential. Second,...Market Valuations and Devolution: Mythos, Madness, or an Allegory?
Over the course of the last few days, some important pieces were published on the valuation of equities and bonds. At the same time we observed independent referendums taking place in Spain and in Kurdistan. The latter could possibly be signs of a devolutionary...Market Implications of Forthcoming Central Banks’ Changing Policies: Liquidity & Recessionary Considerations
According to the Fed’s recent announcement, the US central bank will start shrinking its balance sheet shortly, while we are expecting it to raise short-term rates in December. At the same time, we are also expecting the central bank of England to also raise rates in...Why Have We Been Switching the Headlines? War Games and the US Dollar
Throughout the ages, war has been the engine of finance. The collusion between Russia and China in the last few weeks and months in order to bypass the US dollar in the international monetary system is equal to – if not more important than – the North...Chinese Slowdown: Potential Ramifications for Asset Allocation
The latest data from Chinese economic activity came in below expectations and point to a possible further slowdown for the next year. Specifically, infrastructure spending dropped and this weighed down industrial production. As fiscal policy becomes less supportive...Sign Up for Our Publications
