Manufacturing a Credible Irrationality: Slush Funds, August Memories, and a Prelude to the Chinese Case
In our June newsletter, we announced that in a few months we will publish our research on what we believe to be a Chinese bubble. In that issue we showed how the Chinese coincidental and leading indicators point to a slowdown in China. Since then, the numbers have...From the Great Moderation to the Great Recession
The period from the mid 1980s to the middle of 2007 is known as the period of great moderation, when inflation was low and stable, unemployment also was low, utilized capacity pretty high, productivity growth rate very healthy, interest rates stable and declining,...On Credit Contraction and Deflationary Pressures
The following is a series of thoughts about the threat of deflation knocking at the door of the U.S. economy. The U.S. economic growth is most dependent on the consuming culture of its citizens as it comprises 70% of our GDP. Yet the last decade saw the trend of...Waking Up From a Dream: An Assessment of Recent Events and Emerging Indicators
The stress tests for Europe’s banking system have come and gone and now we feel obliged to provide you with our take. We prefer not to trust the fox guarding the chicken coop just yet. The stress tests are a pinnacle example of the world of finance that has gripped us...The Majestic Ride of Sleeping Assets
As a break from our continued attention to the banking sector and the financial stress that persists around the globe we’d like to offer some thoughts on more general economic activity occurring at present, but which demonstrates the seeds of a new international...Sign Up for Our Publications
