Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the unraveling of America’s traditional expertise-based foreign policy as political loyalists reshape global engagement, while a revived “concert of powers” vision signals a shift toward great-power accommodation and...

The Markets at a Junction: The Dollar, Seneca, the Flows of Capital, and Japan, Part II

When a market (or any institution) lacks an anchor, a myriad of negative repercussions unfold, starting with the lack of tranquility. The absence of the latter creates uncertainty, and the effect of the uncertainty is turmoil. In the following graph, we see the impact...

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and rhetoric, especially towards China and the EU, are major drivers of continued market uncertainty and volatility over the past two weeks. This is evidenced by the elevated VIX (hitting a high of over 53...

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine how Europe’s strategic identity is being tested as it stands at a crossroads between deeper alignment with a U.S.-led alliance and economic entanglement with China, amid rising tariff battles and an evolving doctrine of...

CROSSROADS: Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East/North Africa Last week, Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz declared the seizure of extensive Gaza territory, creating "buffer zones" and effectively isolating Rafah, a city once sheltering over 250,000 Palestinians, with military maps showing a...

CROSSROADS: US, Europe, China & India

North America On April 2nd, U.S. President Donald Trump launched his “Liberation Day” tariff plan, imposing 10%–50% tariffs on nearly all foreign imports using a controversial formula based on trade surpluses, only to contradict prior statements over the...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global Equities Rebound Global equities gained this week, attempting to recover some losses from last week's correction. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased 5.70% and 7.29%, respectively, and the Dow Jones rose 4.95% on the week. The U.S....

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the accelerating disintegration of the postwar global order as President Trump’s sweeping tariffs threaten to unravel decades of economic integration and strain the transatlantic alliance, while scholars warn of a...

The Wooden Nickel: Tarrified

The Wooden Nickel is a collection of roughly a handful of recent topics that have caught our attention. Here you’ll find current, open-ended thoughts. We wish to use this piece as a way to think out loud in public rather than formal proclamations or projections....

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive global tariffs, imposed across virtually all the United States’ major trading partners, have ignited fears of a full-blown trade war and potential global recession. The tariffs could raise prices, invite retaliation, slow...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities higher on the weekGlobal equities were higher on the week as markets continue to rally despite the blow to payrolls announced on Friday. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose from 0.62% to 0.68% over the week. Continuing its...

Covid-19 and the Day After

Given the unprecedented times we're living in, we thought that it might be helpful to send, once a week, a summary of 3-4 articles which reflect the new realities and their potential impact on our lives and assets. Our assessment is that it may take at least...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities slightly downGlobal equities were slightly down on the week. The US 10-year Treasury note was also little changed this week, yielding 0.62% at the end of the week. Though market volatility, as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index...

From Westphalia (1648) to Vienna (1815) and onto Paris (1919), Bretton Woods (1944), Camp David (1971) and the forthcoming Paradigm Shift: Part IV (final), Rebalancing of Power

In the second book of Aristotle’s Nicomachean Ethics we are confronted with a list of virtues and vices. In that table we read about andreia (courage), sophrosune (temperance), eleutheriotes (liberality), megaloprepeia (magnificence), megalopsuchia (magnanimity),...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities slightly lowerThough the market rally continues, global equities were slightly lower on the week. The yield on the US 10-year treasury note changed little, coming to 0.61% at the close of markets on Friday. The price of a barrel of...

Alphabet Soup of Recoveries

“The three most important words in investing are margin of safety." - Warren Buffett There’s been an alphabet soup of hypothesized recovery patterns over the last two months as the economic consensus came to grips with the impending recession in the U.S. L, U, V, W...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities make gainsGlobal equities made gains this week despite grim economic data reports. However, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note dropped 11 basis points to 0.62%. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell...

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