Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the unraveling of America’s traditional expertise-based foreign policy as political loyalists reshape global engagement, while a revived “concert of powers” vision signals a shift toward great-power accommodation and...

The Markets at a Junction: The Dollar, Seneca, the Flows of Capital, and Japan, Part II

When a market (or any institution) lacks an anchor, a myriad of negative repercussions unfold, starting with the lack of tranquility. The absence of the latter creates uncertainty, and the effect of the uncertainty is turmoil. In the following graph, we see the impact...

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and rhetoric, especially towards China and the EU, are major drivers of continued market uncertainty and volatility over the past two weeks. This is evidenced by the elevated VIX (hitting a high of over 53...

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine how Europe’s strategic identity is being tested as it stands at a crossroads between deeper alignment with a U.S.-led alliance and economic entanglement with China, amid rising tariff battles and an evolving doctrine of...

CROSSROADS: Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East/North Africa Last week, Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz declared the seizure of extensive Gaza territory, creating "buffer zones" and effectively isolating Rafah, a city once sheltering over 250,000 Palestinians, with military maps showing a...

CROSSROADS: US, Europe, China & India

North America On April 2nd, U.S. President Donald Trump launched his “Liberation Day” tariff plan, imposing 10%–50% tariffs on nearly all foreign imports using a controversial formula based on trade surpluses, only to contradict prior statements over the...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global Equities Rebound Global equities gained this week, attempting to recover some losses from last week's correction. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased 5.70% and 7.29%, respectively, and the Dow Jones rose 4.95% on the week. The U.S....

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the accelerating disintegration of the postwar global order as President Trump’s sweeping tariffs threaten to unravel decades of economic integration and strain the transatlantic alliance, while scholars warn of a...

The Wooden Nickel: Tarrified

The Wooden Nickel is a collection of roughly a handful of recent topics that have caught our attention. Here you’ll find current, open-ended thoughts. We wish to use this piece as a way to think out loud in public rather than formal proclamations or projections....

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive global tariffs, imposed across virtually all the United States’ major trading partners, have ignited fears of a full-blown trade war and potential global recession. The tariffs could raise prices, invite retaliation, slow...

Covid-19 and the Day After

A $10 Trillion Fed Balance Sheet Is Coming Bill Dudley, BloombergRead the full article here The Fed’s balance sheet has grown by about $3 trillion since mid-March, with more easing on the way. As the Fed buys corporate bonds, municipal securities, Treasuries, and...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities back on the riseAfter last week’s dip, global equities rose this week amid signs the global economy is recovering. Markets seem to be assuming that the worst is behind us. The yield on the US Treasury dropped 2 basis points by Friday...

Covid-19 and the Day After

OECD warns of deepest economic scars in peacetime for a century Chris Giles, Financial TimesRead the full article here While the equity markets seem to have taken for granted the likelihood of a “V-shaped recovery,” a gloomy forecast from the OECD indicates many...

Reinvestment Runaways

We’ve demonstrated that companies that generate high ROIC are time and again the most valuable businesses and stocks to own. In addition, the persistent presence of excess returns points to a moat, a unique business model, inimitable set of characteristics or assets,...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities falterGlobal equities took a tumble this week after markets dropped close to 6% on Thursday amid concerns over an increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations, excessive market speculation, and a pessimistic economic outlook from Federal...

Covid-19 and the Day After

Shipping Industry Warns of Trade Logjam as Crews Remain Stranded Peggy Hollinger, Robert Wright, and Michael Pooler; Financial TimesRead the full article here Nearly 400,000 crew are stranded at sea or at home by Covid-19 travel restrictions. The international...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities surgeGlobal equities made significant gains this week. Promising results from the monthly labor report, which we break down further below, fueled gains on Friday. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 rose 6.7% and 5.4% respectively,...

Covid-19 and the Day After

Given the unprecedented times we're living in, we started a new service of sending once a week, a summary of 3-4 articles that reflect the new realities and their potential impact on our lives and assets. Below are summaries of four intriguing articles with some...

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