Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the unraveling of America’s traditional expertise-based foreign policy as political loyalists reshape global engagement, while a revived “concert of powers” vision signals a shift toward great-power accommodation and...

The Markets at a Junction: The Dollar, Seneca, the Flows of Capital, and Japan, Part II

When a market (or any institution) lacks an anchor, a myriad of negative repercussions unfold, starting with the lack of tranquility. The absence of the latter creates uncertainty, and the effect of the uncertainty is turmoil. In the following graph, we see the impact...

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and rhetoric, especially towards China and the EU, are major drivers of continued market uncertainty and volatility over the past two weeks. This is evidenced by the elevated VIX (hitting a high of over 53...

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine how Europe’s strategic identity is being tested as it stands at a crossroads between deeper alignment with a U.S.-led alliance and economic entanglement with China, amid rising tariff battles and an evolving doctrine of...

CROSSROADS: Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East/North Africa Last week, Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz declared the seizure of extensive Gaza territory, creating "buffer zones" and effectively isolating Rafah, a city once sheltering over 250,000 Palestinians, with military maps showing a...

CROSSROADS: US, Europe, China & India

North America On April 2nd, U.S. President Donald Trump launched his “Liberation Day” tariff plan, imposing 10%–50% tariffs on nearly all foreign imports using a controversial formula based on trade surpluses, only to contradict prior statements over the...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global Equities Rebound Global equities gained this week, attempting to recover some losses from last week's correction. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased 5.70% and 7.29%, respectively, and the Dow Jones rose 4.95% on the week. The U.S....

Geopolitics & the Day After

This week in Geopolitical Concerns, we examine the accelerating disintegration of the postwar global order as President Trump’s sweeping tariffs threaten to unravel decades of economic integration and strain the transatlantic alliance, while scholars warn of a...

The Wooden Nickel: Tarrified

The Wooden Nickel is a collection of roughly a handful of recent topics that have caught our attention. Here you’ll find current, open-ended thoughts. We wish to use this piece as a way to think out loud in public rather than formal proclamations or projections....

Bi-Weekly Market Update

US Equity Markets President Trump’s aggressive global tariffs, imposed across virtually all the United States’ major trading partners, have ignited fears of a full-blown trade war and potential global recession. The tariffs could raise prices, invite retaliation, slow...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities fall as volatility edges upGlobal equities were down again this week. The S&P 500 recorded its fourth consecutive week of losses. The yield on the US 10-year treasury bond dropped to 0.66% while the price of a barrel of West...

Covid-19 and the Day After

At a time when conflicting voices are raised as to when full recovery will arrive, we are pleased to present below a summary of four articles with unique insights that may have an impact on our lives and portfolios in the medium term. The Legal Fight Awaiting Us After...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities continue to dropAfter a strong start to the week for US tech and airline companies, global equities dropped lower on the week. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note ended the week at 0.69%, while WTI oil gained significant ground...

A Preliminary Assessment of Q4

We are of the opinion that the output gap in the US by the end of the year will range between 2.5-3.5%. However, for the European Union (EU), we expect the output gap to be higher than that. Such an assessment implies elevated unemployment rates for both the U3 and...

Weekly Market Update

Global Market News Global equities drop Global equities were down on the week after a tech selloff on Tuesday. By the end of trading on Friday, markets had recovered much of the losses incurred at the beginning of the week. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note...

Covid-19 and the Day After

Most Dangerous Waters in the World Are in the Mediterranean  James Stavridis - Bloomberg Read the full article here  There are three reasons Mr. Stavridis outlines to argue that the Mediterranean is the most dangerous waters of the world. First, Greece and Turkey have...

Weekly Market Update

September 4, 2020 Global Market News Global equities dropThis week, global equities fell as US mega-cap technology stocks came under selling pressure. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remained almost unchanged at 0.721%. The price of a barrel of West Texas...

Covid-19 and the Day After

U.S. Election Priced as Worst Event Risk in VIX Futures History Michael P. Regan, BloombergRead the full article here Election season has traditionally been a source of volatility in the markets, and this year is no exception. One way investors hedge against this risk...

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