A Treacherous Rebalancing Act: A Currency View
Bob Dylan’s song “The times they ‘re a changing”, fits pretty well in today’s global picture. The landscape is changing indeed. Where should we start? In the Arab world? In the fiscal imbalances in the EU but also in the US? In the credit mechanism and its collateral...
Birth Pains: Petrostates, Oil Prices, and the Emerging Middle East Landscape
Over the weekend the headline news was about the continuing turmoil in Arab countries. The reports state that over 200 people are dead in Libya, after the “firing on civilians” took place. The autocratic regime of Gaddafi may be cracking after more than 40 years in...
On Hotspots Part III: Turkey and its Role in the Changing Middle East Landscape
Turkey has become a critical pole in the future hierarchy of global political and economic influence. The recent turmoil in the Middle East seems to be a prime opportunity for the role it wishes to play in the global politico-economic landscape. Over the past few...
On Exchange & Interest Rates: Liquidity Concerns in the Midst of Unrest and the Construction of the New Silk Road
On August 9th of last year, we published on this website a commentary on what amounted to be a prelude to our September newsletter, regarding the Chinese bubble. A few months later and in the beginning of the new Chinese Year, we observe some troubling developments in...
Πληθωριστικες Πιεσεις και Προσδοκιες
Στην παρούσα περίοδο, δύο δυναμικές διαμορφώνονται στο μέτωπο του πληθωρισμού. Η πρώτη έχει να κάνει με τις πληθωριστικές πιέσεις στα βασικά είδη διατροφής και ενέργειας. Βέβαια και οι δύο αυτές πηγές αποκλείονται από τον επίσημο υπολογισμό του τιμάριθμου...
From Tunisia and Egypt to the Rest of the Middle East: Are we Re-living the Historic Days of Regime Change?
For the second part of our series on global hot spots, it should be pretty obvious where the news waves would have us cover: the Middle East, which might be living the days that the former eastern block of countries experienced starting in November 1989 with the fall...
European Debt Scenarios and Prospects for Growth
A few weeks ago we wrote that we are optimistic that another deep crisis will be avoided and that the Euro will survive. Recent developments and scenarios are unfolding that seem to confirm that optimism. However, we remain cautious for the next couple of months,...
On Hotspots and their Place in the Emerging and Frontier World: Part I, the Cases of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
We've mentioned on several occasions in previous newsletters and commentaries our positive growth outlook for numerous emerging economies in the near future and the growing interconnectedness among them. This isn't the first time that developing players command an...
The Mark of Debt: Hysteresis in Municipal Bonds in the Saga of Bubbles
We have written briefly before (July 2010 commentary) on the dangers of the municipal bond market. In this commentary we make the claim that the housing sector leaves a mark of hysteresis in the municipal bond market, which has already started to exhibit signs of...
A WATERSHED MOMENT FOR INVESTORS
Yesterday we ran performance reports for our portfolios1. Our composite return across all portfolios was 18.11%. For comparison, our aggressive portfolio's aggregate return was 35.95%. Annualized, these figures would exceed 35% and 50%, respectively. We started...