Market Icons and Uncertainty in a Changing World Order: Warm Greetings from Byzantium
The Byzantine Emperor Leo III (who inaugurated the Isaurian dynasty of emperors in the Byzantine Empire) was a true reformer. Around 725 AD, he sensed that the empire was endangered from within by lawlessness (the infamous twenty prior years of anarchy), corruption,...
Bi-Weekly Market Update
US Equity Markets Last week US markets saw the worst week of 2025 as investors remain cautious amid escalating concerns over trade policy uncertainty stemming from policy announcements from the Trump administration. Despite the announcement of one-month tariff...
Weekly Market Update
Global Market News Global Equities Tumble Global equities declined this week amid a rollercoaster of tariff developments from the Trump administration, keeping investors on edge. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones tumbled 3.10% and 2.37%, respectively, while the...
Geopolitics & the Day After
In this week's newsletter, our Geopolitics section examines how Putin’s long-term strategy is reshaping the global order, the implications of Trump’s foreign policy realignment for NATO and European security, and the growing push for European strategic autonomy....
The Wooden Nickel
The Wooden Nickel is a collection of roughly a handful of recent topics that have caught our attention. Here you’ll find current, open-ended thoughts. We wish to use this piece as a way to think out loud in public rather than formal proclamations or projections....
Weekly Market Update
Global Market News Global Equities Down Global equities were down on the week amidst uncertainty surrounding economic policies and geopolitical tensions, with tech stocks being hampered by the concern that a slowdown in AI infrastructure could harm profits. The...
Geopolitics & the Day After
In this week's newsletter, the Geopolitical Concerns section explores how Trump’s rapprochement with Russia is upending decades of U.S. foreign policy, Europe's urgent reassessment of defense spending, China's bid for a new global order, and the implications of...
In the Wilderness of Mirrors: The Bayesian Order, the Overton Window, Rising Uncertainty, and Expected Outcomes
Last Friday, the significant drop in consumer sentiment fueled turmoil and led the market into a downward spiral that ended the day with a 1.7% decline, wiping out almost all gains since the election on November 5th, as shown below. As our commentary two...
Regional Market Watch
European Markets Corporate and Business News German commercial property prices fell 5.4% in 2024, a fourth consecutive year of declines, but showed some signs of stabilization as the country's real estate sector tries to shake off its worst crisis in decades. German...
Geopolitics & the Day After
In this week’s newsletter, in Geopolitical Concerns we highlight Trump’s shifting foreign policy, signaling potential U.S. disengagement from Ukraine and Europe while strengthening ties with Russia, sparking European concerns. In Geoeconomics, we examine the pressures...
