On Debts, Leverage, and the Sustainability of the Euro Zone: T like Titanic or Taunus
The Eurogroup is meeting one more time on Monday to decide about the second rescue package for Greece. Division among its members regarding the package exacerbates the markets’ uncertainty. In the last few days, the “strong” countries (Germany, Finland, Austria,...
Abyssus Abyssum Invocat: On Liquidity Premiums and the Broadening of the Collateral Base
The calls heard last week from the southern periphery of the EU seem to be coming from the abyss. The Greek economy is in her fifth year of contraction, the official unemployment rate has hit 20 percent, and more austerity is on the horizon for at least the next 3-4...
An Asymmetrical Diaspora of Credit and Capital: Market Upswing and Policies’ Lags
The argument of this commentary is as follows: The market experiences an upswing (which we anticipated and started commenting on December 21, 2011) due to two basic facts: First, the policies’ implemented needed time to work and hence the lag in growth, employment,...
An Exercise in Futility: Can we Add by Subtracting?
Today the EU leaders are gathering again for another summit! More than two years into their crisis, they cannot get their act together while continuing on the same path of an absurd austerity that has only produced higher debts, lower government revenues, lower...
On Capital Flight and Balance Sheets: Capital Accounts in the Era of Black Holes
The news from the United Kingdom this week implied that more quantitative easing and money printing is coming to the U.K. economy soon. When we take into account that high debt of households in the U.K., (see graph below) we could only come to one conclusion:...
Before the Dawn of the Waste Land: Expected Returns, and Economic Performance
The macroeconomic picture – globally - does not look that promising. Trends need to be reversed in order to avoid the dawn of the waste land. However, for the near term measures taken have the effect of addressing some symptoms and provide short-term relief and hope....
The Hypothecation of the Merconti Hypothesis: Banks’ Deleveraging and Currencies Trajectories
Mer(kel) has lately been enjoying one of her highest favorable ratings in her political career in Germany. (Sar)ko(zy) is up in the polls but still behind his main opponent (Francois Hollande) in the upcoming presidential elections in France. (Mo)nti, the caretaker...
The Markets in Altdorfer’s Metalanguage: Persephone at the Crossroads where Metacapitalism Meets Metamodernity
Recently I finished reading an excellent book by James Rickards entitled Currency Wars. Let me quote from the concluding chapter: “The dollar, for all its faults and weaknesses, is the pivot of the entire global system of currencies, stocks, bonds, derivatives and...
In the Garden of Credit: Signs of Life and the Prospects for 2012
Liquidity has dried up in Europe. Banks in the greater EU are unable to refinance their unsecured bonds that are approaching maturity. Moody’s cut the credit rating of French banks last week, and it is expected that France and other nations’ credit rating will be cut...
The Incubation of a Crisis: Dum Spiro Spero in the Life of Swap Lines and Hybrid Accounting
In the last few days the markets tried to breathe a breath of new life and optimism in the midst of developments in the EU and the initiatives taken by central banks. It has been our position that the EU is suffering from two deadly problems, namely: cancer (public...
