On the Balkanization of the Markets: Part II
Last Friday’s evening downgrade by the S&P was ill-timed and ill-advised. We wrote a week ago that we would not be surprised if it took place. We will reiterate our position that August again will prove to be a pivotal month in the financial markets. No need to...
The Balkanization of the Debt Markets: Devolution in Uncharted Waters
As we are drafting this commentary, the news is that a deal for the US debt limit is very close to be completed, that will involve the raising of the limit by at least $3 trillion in two phases. It seems that the political theater is approaching its end. Our opinions...
Anchoring Optimism in an Era of Anxiety: Reflections on Debt & Financial Stability
As an opening statement allow us to paraphrase David Liss’ claim in his novel A Conspiracy of Paper, where he claims that finance is an animal, and the government needs to decide how big the cage should be. In a few days we will be entering August. The memories of...
The World of Finance and the Public Interest
We are very pleased and honored to use by permission the latest speech that former Chairman of the Federal Reserve System Mr. Paul Volcker gave in London last Thursday, July 14, at the Cass Business School. In times of uncertainty his wise voice needs to be heard, and...
An Italian Twist in the Eurozone Crisis: Ave Europa Nostra Vera Patria
The old anthem of imperial Europe cried out, “Hail, Europe, our true Fatherland”, and Italy nowadays enters its own phase of the Eurozone crisis. Italian bonds’ spreads over Germany’s Bunds have risen to their highest levels since 2002, as the following graph shows....
On Risks, Currencies, and Asset Classes: Mispricing, Imbalances, and Credit Extensions
As of yesterday (July 4th), it seems that the European debt crisis is entering into a new phase, with the expected new downgrades of Greek paper by the major rating agencies, which warned that “selective default” is at hand, due to the terms of the rescue package...
Market Turmoil: Signs of Tremors and Nuggets of Gold
The storm we have been writing about in the last three weeks seems to be gaining speed. The Greek debt crisis can open Pandora’s box and unleash sovereign debt, banking, bond, and equities turmoil, generating the third phase of the crisis we wrote before (see e.g. the...
On Glorious Co-determination: Potential Scenarios in the Midst of Debt Concerns
The war of words was in high gear this past week. German officials demanded participation of the private sector in a new Greek bailout package that is estimated to be around $130 billion, i.e. about 40% of the Greek GDP. If that happens, then Greece will have borrowed...
ΠΛΗΘΩΡΙΣΤΙΚΕΣ ΠΙΕΣΕΙΣ ΣΤΙΣ ΑΝΑΠΤΥΣΣΟΜΕΝΕΣ ΑΓΟΡΕΣ
Οι αναδυόμενες αγορές έχουν αποσπάσει ένα μεγάλο μέρος της προσοχής μας τα τελευταία χρόνια. Τα γεγονότα των τελευταίων μηνών μας υπενθυμίζουν την σημασία των αναπτυσσόμενων αγορών. Πρώτον, πολλοί παρατηρητές καθημερινά διαπιστώνουν το βαθμό αλληλοσύνδεσης...
ENA ΣΕΝΑΡΙΟ ΑΛΥΣΙΔΩΤΩΝ ΕΞΕΛΙΞΕΩΝ: ΟΙ ΑΙΤΙΕΣ, ΤΑ ΣΥΜΠΤΩΜΑΤΑ, ΚΑΙ ΜΙΑ ΠΙΘΑΝΗ ΛΥΣΗ
Τις τελευταίες ημέρες, η αγορές έχουν εστιάσει την προσοχή τους στην κρίση της Ευρωζώνης. Με λίγα λόγια η αλυσιδωτή αντίδραση που οι αγορές φοβούνται έχει ως ακολούθως: Η Ελλάδα θε εξωθηθεί σε αναδιάρθρωση, παράταση της προθεσμίας εξόφλησης ομολόγων, ή σε χρεωκοπία....
