The Investment Paths of 2016, Part II: From Risks to Opportunities
Much ado about nothing may end up being not just a Shakespeare play but also the reality that will sink in after the Fed starts raising short term rates. All those talks, analyses, papers, assessments, and myriads of opinions about the terrible effects that the rate...
Diverging Asymmetries and Market Fragilities: Understanding the Investment Paths of 2016, Part I
Well-respected publications such as The Economist and The Financial Times have recently published extensive reports regarding the threats to the global economy from emerging markets’ debt. The fact is that emerging market economies have accumulated significant amounts...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Despite continuing concerns about the vibrancy of the retail sector stocks posted a strong week, led by the Consumer Discretionary sector. Emerging markets are posed to record their first acceleration in growth in 2016 since 2010 according to a new...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Stocks delivered one of their worst weeks since August, when China’s devaluation and macro concerns sparked volatility. Every sector, save for Utilities, saw a sharp downturn as poor retail sales and earning reports combined with increased tightening...
The Tranquility of Volatility: The Risk of the Uncertainty and the Pricing of Assets
It is an indisputable fact that the last ten months have been characterized by high volatility. The market breadth (defined as the number of advancing over declining stocks) has turned below one (implying that more stocks declined than advanced) several times during...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Stocks ended October posting some of their best monthly gains in years. 76% of reporting firms have surpassed their earnings expectations thus far in Q3 although sales figures continue to be held back by the strong dollar. It seems companies are on their...
Shifting Cycles and Portfolio Structures: Hand Me Another Brick to Build a Shelter From the Storm
As previously noted from this page, I believe that we are entering into a period where the forces of market risk, volatility, liquidity, and credit risk encompass a cycle whose velocity may change much more frequently than during any other period in financial history....
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Stocks in the U.S. posted another week of gains and have largely recovered from their period of volatility in August. With the Fed Funds Futures and Bond Markets pricing zero rates into 2016 stocks may have more room to run this year. While markets in...
Financial Distress: Infatuations and Magnificent Illusions
In his 1984 Shareholder Letter, Warren Buffett wrote: “The corpse is supposed to file the death certificate. Under this ‘honor system’ of mortality, the corpse sometimes gives itself the benefit of the doubt”. This is an example of a magnificent delusion unfortunately...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Despite more data that questioned the health of the current macroeconomic environment asset markets had one of their best weeks in months. Energy and Materials, the two weakest sectors so far in 2015, led the rally with each rising over 7%. The first...
