Market Sentiment and Residual Confusions: On the Finite Unpredictability of Uncertain Outcomes
Yesterday, the South African Rand lost 10% of its value. The South African economy is viewed as unstable due to its domestic politics (the President changed the Minister of Finance twice within a week) as well as its dependence on exports to China. The reality of a...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action U.S. markets got off to their worst start ever to a new year. The selling was virtually indiscriminate, with every sector and segment of the market down. Further worries about Chinese growth, the renminbi, and how regulators manage falling asset prices...
At the Dawn of 2016: Where the Credit Cycle Meets Geopolitical Tensions and the Earnings Yield
Rising geopolitical tensions during the first couple of days in the New Year may bring a rising risk premium. At the same time, China’s market turmoil (due to slowing manufacturing activity as well as expiring restrictions on share sales) is impacting markets in...
How then Should We Invest? A Conversation with Francis Bacon, Descartes, Heisenberg, Israel Kirzner, Byron, and Francis Schaeffer
I boarded the non-stop flight from Cincinnati to Paris. Walking down the plane’s aisle I discovered a special area can accommodate round-the-table discussions, just as in previous years. To my left I saw Bacon, Descartes, and Heisenberg. On the right side were...
Strategic Assets and Strategic Mistakes: Tactical Moves for 2016 and Planting COG Seeds for the Day After 2016 (Investment Paths Series, Part IV)
It’s so wonderful to have friends who teach you about some great moments in history that could have been pivotal for the world we live today. A few days ago, I was visiting with Dan Schechter in Los Angeles – principal of L.E.K. Consulting, a prominent global...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Stocks welcomed the first interest rate increase in nearly a decade with a strong rally on Wednesday but gave up gains the following two days and closed down on the week. Energy and materials continued their dismal performance this year. Argentina lifted...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equity markets sold off considerably this week. Renewed volatility in energy, tremors in high-yield debt and widespread expectations of tightening monetary policy from the Fed next week were all contributing factors. OPEC’s decision to keep with...
Market Mispricing and Distortions: Liquidity and Credit Concerns
Over the last few days the markets have exhibited signs of fears and some distress. Diverging a little bit from our recent commentaries that dealt with the investment paths of 2016, I would like us to review the main reasons for the recent market behavior. Before...
The Investment Paths of 2016, Part III: Ain’t Misbehavin’ and the Crossing of the Volatility Bridge
During most of 2015, investors had to worry about a Grexit, a China slowdown, a commodities bust, or a synchronized degradation of market expectations. At the dawn of 2016, we are of the opinion that a bridge is open that can put behind the volatility of 2015 and...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Thanks to a strong jobs report on Friday U.S. stocks rallied to end the week slightly positive. European equities declined sharply this week after a disappointing policy announcement from the ECB relative to expectations. The ECB lowered its main policy...
