Financial Conditions and Helicopter Money: Generational Public Ethos and Norms Greet Mr. Market
We are experiencing a transformational change from post-modernity to meta-modernity. As that transformation takes place public philosophy, customs, policies and norms also change. The metamorphosis which is now at works may soon resemble the one described by Kafka in...
Counterparty Risks and the Gathering Storm: Inadequate Solutions and Absurd Voices
In a recent commentary we pointed out that one of the largest clearing houses asked for a $50 billion capital contribution from member institutions, (see https://blacksummitfg.com/3375 ). We have also been pointing out that collateral deficits undermine the stability...
It’s The “Never Befores,” Stupid
We are delighted to host the presentation that Mr. Lawrence Goodman made last week at the Stronger Global Economic Growth Conference in Shanghai. Mr. Goodman is the president of the Center for Financial Stability (CFS). Mr. Goodman has served as managing director and...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Markets around the globe moved higher in unison this week although the catalysts seem to deviate. U.S. data this week showed promise for the economy while in China and Europe weak reports suggest further easing measures for longer. The most recent U.S....
Rendezvous with the Future: Looking Forward Through the Lenses of the Past Quarter Century
In this commentary, and in future postings, neither do we intend to outline all possible scenarios regarding the unfolding of geopolitical and geoeconomic events, nor do we suggest that the anchoring of portfolios is the only thing that investors should do. Rather, we...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
Today’s world is safer and richer than it has ever been, but this is of little comfort to those whose expectations are repeatedly disappointed. When one starts connecting the economic, geopolitical, societal and environmental dots, reasons to worry are mounting. In...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action For the second straight week U.S. equities markets posted robust returns though they remain down on the year so far. Yields on benchmark bonds also remain stubbornly low, indicating confidence is still lacking over future equity returns. The British...
Systemic Risks and Collateral Velocity, Part II: Credit Bottlenecks and Market Tremors
In our commentary dated February 10th (http://stage.blacksummitfg.com/3375) we outlined the significance of collateral velocity and the inherent dangers of another crisis given that the main culprit (derivatives) of the 2008 crisis has not been addressed yet. The...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global stocks had their best week of 2016 thanks largely to softer expectations from monetary authorities. China continues to inject cash into the economy and reported strong credit growth last month. Meanwhile European authorities articulated a strong...
The Flattening of the Yield Curve and the Migration of Risks: The Path of Hedging Holdings and a Contrarian View on Market Trajectory
Historically, the inversion of the yield curve is a good predictor of recessions. On top of this when spreads of high yield bonds reach the current level of 850 bps (i.e. 8.5% above Treasuries) the probability to experience a recession within 8-12 months is between...
