Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
May 2016 Today’s world is threatened by many a ticking time bomb. Some, like immigration, financial crises or terrorism, tend to blow up suddenly; but the majority - including rising inequalities, ultra-low or negative interest rates, technological change,...
On the Dark Hidden Pools of Chinese Liabilities: Debt Binge and Capital Outflows
In September 2010 we warned of the Chinese Wall of Steroids, http://stage.blacksummitfg.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/The-Great-Wall-of-Steroids-Vol-2-Issue-3.pdf . In that newsletter we also explained the dangers of WMPs (wealth management products) in China where...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Investors continued to shy away from risk assets throughout the week as global shares hit a six-week low before regaining some ground on Friday. Money has flowed out of equities for the sixth straight week according to Bank of America and flocked to...
Risk Adjusted Returns, M&A, and Portfolio Structure: What Does Recent Market Activity Tell us?
Recent reports by major investment banks carry a flavor of pessimism, by suggesting underweighting equities and higher exposure to high yield. We are cautious over the course of the next few months regarding equities and we would suggest defensive tactics (such as...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Equities posted their third consecutive week of losses in the U.S. amid mixed data from corporate earnings and economic variables. The retail sector was in heavy focus as several major firms posted weak quarters while retail sales data on Friday was the...
The Geopolitics of Market Volatility: Spillover Effects and Macro Fundamentals
The act of counterbalancing and possibly containing China has multiple faces. Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan met with Vladimir Putin of Russia last weekend in an effort to sway some support regarding the dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku a.k.a....
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
April 2016 Yet again the IMF global economic for 2016 have been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points - to 3.2%. Global growth remains weak and uneven, beset by financial, geopolitical and political risks. The best-performing economies, like the US, are...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The past week started positively for risk assets but turned sour on Thursday and Friday with markets reverting to their trends for the first six weeks of the year. Some disappointing earnings reports from leading names, including Apple, and chatter from...
Currency Winds and Market Waves: Banks, Central Banks, & Policy Divergence?
Yesterday’s decision by the Japanese Central Bank not to extend its monetary easing, strengthened the Yen and significantly pressured the Nikkei Index. It has been obvious in the last several months that there is a strong inverse correlation between the Yen and the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Major U.S. indices hit their highest points since last July and set 2016 highs this week. Bond yields have also hit their highest mark in recent weeks, signaling renewed risk appetite in markets. The energy sector led this week on the back of rising...
