Fifteen years ago the global markets were getting ready to “welcome” the Asian financial crisis. The cause of that crisis? Declining multifactor productivity from Thailand and Taiwan, to Indonesia and […]

I love dogmas (our first D). I know that in politically correct terms, dogma is an antiquated term that should die. However, dogmas are like the oxygen. You may not […]

Last Thursday evening, JP Morgan Chase admitted to losses of at least $2 billion on a $100 billion derivatives bet, baptized as hedging. As time goes by, the actual losses […]

The results of the elections held in Greece last Sunday may well have sent a powerful signal to politicians and policy makers worldwide, that has yet to be discussed by […]

From last weekend’s IMF meetings we learned that its “firepower” had increased substantially by over $400 billion to be used as needed in light of the deteriorating situation in Europe. […]

The figure below shows the six forces which we believe are at work in determining the trajectory of the Euro in the foreseeable future. The analysis below discusses the six […]

The markets were rattled in the last few days. Let’s review what the conventional wisdom underwrote as the main causes (we use the plural causes, since the explanation was changing […]

The risks in the global economy remain due to Europe’s problems in the banking and fiscal spheres as well as due to the hundreds of trillions of dollars in toxic […]

A friend was telling me lately that it seems that there are two kinds of people: Those who chose the door that leads to paradise and those who choose the […]

It has long been our position that the debt market should be viewed as a market for third-party liabilities. Its growth advances leverage and brings with it diminishing returns since […]

We just want to erase from our memories the happenings of last fall, when the markets were dropping nervously while searching for signs of life. The swap lines announced by […]