The Reshaping of Global Trade and Recent Economic Trends
A major Chinese conference related to the New Silk Road ended two days ago. The conference centered on the theme of “One Belt, One Road”, which is the Chinese equivalent of a Marshall Plan to dominate world trade via controls of railways, shipping routes, power...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The U.S. and China stuck an agreement on a 10 point trade package on Friday centered around good and services such as beef, poultry, natural gas, financial services and biotechnology. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross touts the deal as a means to reducing...
Sic Tranit Gloria Mundi: Defining Moments in Global Financial History and the Undercurrent of Today’s Developments
There are revolutions, wars, and historical periods that have defined global developments and carry significant weight in shaping up the world economy to this day. There is little if any doubt that France during the Revolutionary Wars, Britain during the Napoleonic...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The April employment report came in much stronger than expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, a post-crisis low on the heels of 211,000 jobs created in April. The report boosted the odds of a Fed rate hike in June to 80% according to market...
The Powerhouse of Structural Changes: Co-integration, Co-movement, and Disintegration
By 460 CE the Roman Army was dominated by Germanic troops. By that time they had also forgotten a basic lesson that it is the army that elects the Emperor. By 475 CE, the barbarian chief Odoacer replaced the Roman emperor with himself. The citizens of Rome selected...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
April 2017 The IMF global growth forecasts are on the move again, but for the first time in six years they’re on the up. They now anticipate global GDP will rise by 3.5% this year and 3.6% in 2018, the same as last October’s forecast. Albeit a rather tepid...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action After France’s election equity markets took off across the globe, approaching recent highs. The Euro reached a five-month high after the results of France’s election and the nation’s stock market rose over 4% on Monday’s opening trade. China’s...
The Fading of Shocks and the Complacency Spirit: A Realistic Midterm/Longterm View
There is a sense of a cyclical recovery around the world. The shocks of the last 8-10 years (financial crisis, EU debt crisis, commodities downturn) seem to be fading, and in their place we observe rising expectations regarding growth. The latest IMF report on the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action French bond yields and spreads to benchmark German bonds narrowed throughout the course of the week as the nation heads to the polls. The race is a tight contest between four major candidates. Since no majority for anyone is expected, a runoff in May is...
Assessing Possible High Impact Outcomes: From Egypt to France, and from London to D.C.
As we go down the road where the improbable becomes probable and the non-tradable becomes tradable, we discuss below four possible outcomes that could alter the investment landscape. Those four are: The recently discovered offshore Egyptian energy resources; the...
