World Markets, Bank Debt, and Diversification: Earnings and Other Drivers
As many analysts have pointed out lately, the equity markets at the current levels are stretched, but probably not over-stretched. Global equity correlations have been falling this year (from their high of 77% in 2009 to around 39% in 2017), providing some...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The Bank of Canada raised interest rates for the first time since 2010 this week from 0.5% to 0.75%. The tighter policy comes amidst upward revisions to forecasts for the country’s economic growth. The move will likely slow the country’s booming housing...
Substituting for the Credit Cycle: An Optimistic Perspective
There is almost no doubt that the extraordinary measures taken by the central banks around the world over the last several years uplifted equities, lowered cost of capital, increased corporate prospects and in general created a market upswing at a time when global...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The U.S. economy added 222,000 in the month of June according to Friday’s employment report, which included an upward revision of to May’s report as well. While the number of jobs created easily surpassed expectations wages continue to diverge from the...
Valuation Metrics, Currencies, and Portfolio Rebalancing: Kantian of Fichte?
According to most valuation metrics, European stocks trade at a discount relative to those in the US. Consequently, fund managers are on a shopping spree for EU-based equities. As a result the Euro has been strengthening against the dollar. Certainly, the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The Federal Reserve approved the capital plans of the 34 largest financial institutions in the U.S. The plans were the second half of the central bank’s annual stress test. The passing mark resulted in record increases in dividends and buybacks for some...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
June 2017 Lowflation is back. Core inflation is softer than expected, notably in the US and Europe, but also in other countries like China. The resultant flattening bond yields (before this week’s sell-off) are complicating the task of the Fed and other central...
Reverberations and Growth Prospects: Implications for Equity and Fixed Income Markets
In the last few weeks two developments – related to key issues for the health of the global economy – have been unfolding. The first deals with European banks, and the second with the trajectory of oil prices. Last month two major Spanish banks (Santander and Intensa...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Healthcare stocks posted one of their strongest weeks of the year and now represent the second best performing group in 2017 so far. The rise coincides with release of the Senate’s healthcare bill, deemed to be more favorable to a number of industries...
Relevering Balance Sheets and Recalibrating Expectations: The Central Authorities Effect
Current financial and economic conditions in the US as well as in the EU are conducive to higher growth in the second half of the year. In addition, the shaping up of similar conditions in Asia and some other emerging and frontier markets point to a coordinated upward...
