Monetary Trends and 2018 Outlook: Searching for Value
The recent data on M3 (a broader definition of money supply that includes money market funds and large time deposits) show that its growth has been 6.5% (year-on-year) and actually stands at a three-year high (see graph below). How could that be explained and how...
Valuation Fatigue and Credit Outlook: An Initial Assessment of 2018
Given the fundamental trends, we expect global growth to remain healthy in 2018, and therefore we also expect that the credit risk appetite will also remain healthy in 2018. Having said that, we should also state that we expect some tightening in the spreads between...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities edged slightly lower this week amid an uptick in volatility. Yields on benchmark US 10-year Treasury notes slipped a few basis points to 2.35%, and the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell about 3% mid-week before...
At the Corridors of Power: Markets and Geopolitical Developments
The proxy war between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran is intensifying and our fear is that it may ignite a regional conflict with far-reaching global consequences, especially if Russia and the US take opposite sites. The two Middle Eastern countries have...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities reached all-time highs at midweek before backing down amid anxiety about delays in US corporate tax cuts. Saudi Arabia’s crackdown on corruption, growing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the potential for a Venezuelan debt...
The Strategic Importance of Brazil
by Evan Ellis Evan Ellis, Phd, is a research professor of Latin American Studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute with a focus on the region's relationships with China and other non-Western Hemisphere actors. He has published more than 190...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities set record highs again during the week, against a backdrop of solid economic and earnings growth. U.S. job growth accelerated in October after hurricane-related disruptions in the prior month. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, a 16-year...
An Initial Look at Key Indicators for 2018: Could the Upswing Continue?
For this week’s commentary, we have chosen to look at three important indicators which could shape up the markets’ trajectory in 2018. We will start with the US which continues to be the locomotive of the markets’ direction. We are of the opinion that capital...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
October 2017 The IMF has just increased GDP forecasts for all advanced economies – with the exception of Spain and the UK. When everything is going well, it’s time to think about what might go wrong. Medium and longterm challenges abound, ranging from...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The US economy grew at a faster-than-forecast pace of 3% in the third quarter, handily beating 2.5% forecasts. Economists had expected a moderate Q3 slowdown because of the impacts of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Real consumer spending showed continued...
