Crossroads: At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics
Here are some critical issues to watch around the globe over the coming month: North America US President Trump has succeeded in one of his major goals: renegotiating NAFTA, now known as USMCA. USMCA is a standard modern trade agreement requiring a higher minimum...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Stock market gains have largely been eliminated for the year, indexes are in correction territory, and several S&P sectors - namely Communication Services, Energy, Financials, and Materials - have declined 10-15% in the last three months as shown on...
Reflections on the Market’s Turmoil
Yesterday, while I was boarding an overseas flight, the markets were experiencing significant turmoil. During the long flight, I had the opportunity to contemplate the causes of the recent turmoil. The list below, while not necessarily exhaustive, covers the most...
Repricing Expectations: Reconciling Market Disruptions and the Earnings Momentum
Yesterday the Nasdaq index touched correction territory by dropping more than 10% since its recent highs. Should we be expecting a correction or even a bear market for the rest of the indexes as well? Our opinion is that the equities are going through a repricing...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action At Blacksummit we are monitoring a few important indices in order to observe market momentum and understand possible market patterns and direction. In an effort to comprehend if we are in the process of a market rotation (e.g. from growth into value)...
Ozymandias and our Great Circus: Ironies, Myths, and Realities
Percy Shelley’s poem titled “Ozymandias” is a sonnet, just a fourteen-line verse form that Petrarch, Spencer, and Shakespeare used during the Renaissance. Following Petrarch’s style, Shelley introduces an octave in the first eight lines which poses a question to be...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities suffered their biggest weekly decline since February, partly because of rising US bond yields. For months, US equities have ignored macro issues such as the deepening US-China trade rift and have advanced despite typically weak seasonal...
Trying to Make Sense of Recent Market Movements
Yesterday’s drop of more than 3% in equities generated concerns about experiencing a correction similar to the one that we saw earlier this year. The fact is that the market has declined by about 5% in the last five days, and tech-related shares have lost about 8.5%,...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Global equities declined on the week amid rising treasury yields and the Fed’s pursuit of rates that will exceed a neutral stance. The US 10-year Treasury note rose to its highest level in more than 7 years. The price of WTI Crude oil increased slightly...
Towards a Policy of Rate Neutrality: Implications for Asset Allocation
Since December 2015 the Fed has raised short-term interest rates eight times (from 0-0.25% where it stood in December 2015) to the current level of 2-2.25%. Analysts anticipate that the Fed will continue raising rates. Actually, the expectation is that the FOMC will...
