CROSSROADS: Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa

Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded over the last month in the Middle East/North Africa, Asia (ex-China/India/Japan), Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa, and which may affect economic, financial, and geopolitical issues in the months ahead.

Middle East & North Africa

On November 18^th, Israeli military strikes in Lebanon and Gaza resulted in dozens of deaths, marking a significant escalation in ongoing conflicts despite existing ceasefire agreements. An Israeli airstrike on the Ein el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon killed at least 13 people, making it the deadliest Israeli attack there since a ceasefire a year prior. Israel claimed it targeted a Hamas training compound, which Hamas denied. Other airstrikes have since occurred, targeting Hezbollah weapons and infrastructure. In Gaza, Israeli strikes on November 19th killed at least 25 Palestinians. The Israeli military stated its forces struck Hamas targets after being fired upon in Khan Younis, which Hamas disputed. Both Israel and Hamas continue to blame each other for violating the ceasefire terms.
On November 17th, the UN Security Council approved a resolution backing President Donald Trump’s comprehensive peace plan for Gaza. The plan authorizes an international stabilization force to provide security and supervise the territory’s governance and reconstruction, overseen by a transitional “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump. Hamas has rejected the UN resolution, saying it fails to meet the demands of Palestinians and amounts to “foreign guardianship” of Gaza. The group agreed only to the first phase of the original ceasefire plan, which involved the hostage/detainee exchange and partial Israeli withdrawal, and has not agreed to disarm or step back from governance. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials have stated they will block the plan’s reference to a potential future Palestinian state. Nevertheless, Israel has welcomed the plan as a path to “peace and prosperity” and is focused on the demobilization and disarmament of Hamas. Both sides have accused the other of violations since it went into effect in October. Despite the ceasefire, humanitarian corridors remain severely restricted by Israel, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to worsen, with severe shortages of food, water, and medical supplies leaving civilians in urgent need of aid.
Houthis have paused their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea as of this month. This cessation of hostilities is linked to and contingent upon the ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. In a letter to Hamas’s military wing, the Houthi military chief of staff, Maj. Gen. Yusuf Hassan al-Madani, stated that the group is monitoring the Gaza ceasefire and will resume operations if that conflict resumes. Many major shipping companies and insurers remain highly cautious, requiring significant and sustained assurances of safety before fully committing to a return to the traditional Red Sea routes, which involves avoiding the longer and more expensive detour around the Cape of Good Hope.
Iraq held parliamentary elections on November 11th, in which no single political bloc won an outright majority. The leading bloc was Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition, which won a plurality of 46 seats. The elections were marked by a boycott from the Sadrist Movement led by influential Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, which had won the largest share of seats in the previous 2021 election. The informal post-2003 power-sharing system dictates that the Prime Minister be a Shiite, the Speaker a Sunni, and the President a Kurd, but internal divisions within the Sunni and Kurdish blocs complicate the negotiation process for all three top posts, as each community struggles to present a unified front.
The United States and Saudi Arabia finalized multiple deals in a recent White House visit. A defense deal was signed authorizing a $142 billion purchase of F-35 fighter jets, as well as other assorted military equipment. Agreements were also formalized for long-term nuclear energy cooperation and rare earth refining. Additionally, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to increase prior commitments to invest in the U.S. economy from $600 billion to $1 trillion. The Saudi government-run AI company, Humain, also partnered with Nvidia and Elon Musk’s xAI to build data centers in Saudi Arabia.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited the White House this month for a meeting with President Trump. This marked the first-ever visit by a Syrian head of state to the White House since Syria gained independence in 1946. The U.S. lifted the terrorist designation and sanctions on the group al-Sharaa was affiliated with, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), earlier this year. The Trump administration also agreed to suspend the imposition of the Caesar Act sanctions on Syria for 180 days, allowing for a temporary lifting of broad economic sanctions to aid in the country’s reconstruction. For Syria, the new government formally confirmed it would join the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS and is coordinating with U.S. forces on counter-terrorism operations. The U.S. aims to restore full diplomatic relations, which were suspended in 2012, and the U.S. embassy in Damascus has already reopened.
Market Implications: MENA markets are navigating easing maritime risks, shifting politics, and tentative diplomatic openings. A fragile Gaza ceasefire has held, improving prospects for aid flows and reconstruction, while Yemen’s Houthis signaled a pause in Red Sea attacks, potentially lowering war-risk insurance and normalizing Suez traffic—positive for Gulf shippers and Egypt’s toll revenues. However, Israeli strikes in Lebanon and policy uncertainty in Iraq and Syria keep volatility elevated.

Latin America & the Caribbean

U.S. strikes are continuing off the coast of South America, in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific, as part of an anti-drug trafficking operation dubbed Operation Southern Spear. At the time of writing, there have been at least 22 such strikes since early September. The U.S. has also imposed sanctions on Colombian President Gustavo Petro as of late October. The Treasury Department accused Petro of “allowing drug cartels to flourish” and refusing to stop their activities, citing record levels of coca cultivation and cocaine production in Colombia during his presidency. The Trump administration had previously determined that Colombia was “failing demonstrably” to uphold its drug control responsibilities.
Argentina’s most recent midterm elections, held late last month, saw a decisive victory for President Javier Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA). Winning over 40% of the national vote, the result was widely seen as a vote of confidence in his radical economic reforms. LLA and allied blocs picked up a significant number of seats in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, bolstering the government’s support in the legislature, strengthening Milei’s ability to pass legislation, such as labor and tax reforms, and to uphold presidential vetoes. The win was met with positive reactions from financial markets, rallying sovereign bonds and the Argentine peso. The Trump administration had provided an unprecedented financial aid package of a $20 billion currency swap and promises of another $20 billion in private bank loans, just before the election. This added stability of the Argentine economy likely contributed to the LLA’s sweeping success.
Chile held its first-round presidential election on November 16th, marking the country’s highest turnout in decades at 85% under mandatory voting. No candidate secured an outright majority, setting up a polarized runoff on December 14 between Jeannette Jara, a former labor minister from the ruling leftist coalition and Communist Party member, and José Antonio Kast, leader of the far-right Republican Party. Jara led with about 26.8% of the vote, while Kast followed closely with 23.9%, buoyed by strong law-and-order messaging amid rising crime and migration concerns. Right-wing candidates collectively captured over 50% of the vote, giving Kast a strategic advantage heading into the runoff, while markets reacted positively to the results with a rally in Chile’s IPSA index and a stronger peso.
Newly elected Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz has agreed to approve a license for Starlink to operate in the country, a decision made shortly after his inauguration in November 2025. This agreement marks a change from the previous administration, which had denied a license to Starlink in 2024. The move is part of Paz’s plan to repair relations with the U.S., attract foreign investment, and bring high-speed, reliable internet to all parts of Bolivia, especially rural and remote areas. The election of President Paz marks the end of two decades of rule from socialist parties in Bolivia.
The 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP30, is being held in Belém, Brazil, from November 10th to the 21st. This conference marks the 10th anniversary of the landmark Paris Agreement. A key focus is on accelerating the implementation of national climate plans (NDCs), advancing climate finance, and protecting tropical forests. Notably, the U.S. government did not send formal representatives, though an unofficial delegation of state and local leaders is participating. Ironically, controversy arose over the construction of a new four-lane highway near Belém to facilitate the conference, which involved clearing an eight-mile stretch of the Amazon rainforest. Additionally, the Brazilian government has faced significant backlash for continuing to auction new oil and gas exploration rights, including near the mouth of the Amazon, where the conference was held.
Market Implications: Latin American markets are trading under the influence of North American risk dynamics. U.S. strikes in the Caribbean and Venezuela-related tensions keep maritime insurance and Andean energy/logistics risk premia elevated, while COP30 in Belém reinforces Brazil’s green-capex narrative, supporting renewables and green-bond issuance over the medium term. Bolivia’s pro-market pivot and signals of improved U.S. engagement point to telecoms and connectivity upside, though fiscal fragility tempers enthusiasm. Hurricane Melissa’s devastation weighs on Caribbean tourism and banking, while Argentina’s midterm-driven reform momentum has sparked a rally in bonds and equities. Overall, regional markets are expected to remain volatile near term, with selective opportunities in green infrastructure and reform-driven plays, while shipping and Caribbean assets face persistent headwinds. Latin American markets, as tracked by the S&P Latin America 40 Index, gained some ground over the last month and are up more than 40% year-to-date.

Asia & Eurasia (ex-China/India/Japan)

This month, U.S. President Trump hosted the leaders of the five Central Asian nations at the White House, vowing to boost cooperation with the region, particularly in critical minerals, energy, and trade. The initiative, under the C5+1 diplomatic platform, aims to expand U.S. influence in a region traditionally dominated by Russia and China. A notable product of the meeting was a joint U.S.-Kazakhstan tungsten mining venture worth over $1 billion, and an additional $17 billion in other bilateral agreements between Kazakhstan and American companies. Further, Uzbekistan pledged to purchase and invest more than $100 billion in various U.S. sectors, namely aviation and technology, over the next decade. A sale of 37 Boeing jets to the national airlines of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan was also agreed upon.
U.S. President Trump returned from a trip to Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea that resulted in several bilateral deals with said host nations, as well as other countries in the region. Vietnam pledged to increase purchases of U.S. goods, while Japan and South Korea detailed further planned U.S. investments. Trump also signed a commitment to cooperate on rare earths with Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand. He did not stay in the region for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.
The peace agreement signed between Cambodia and Thailand in late October has been suspended by Thailand as of November 10th, following a flare-up of border tensions. The border dispute, dating back to French colonial mapping, had escalated into armed conflict in July of this year, resulting in dozens of deaths and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians. An initial ceasefire was agreed upon later that month, and the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord was signed in October. It was supported by U.S. President Donald Trump, who had applied pressure by linking the deal to trade talks. Thailand insists on resolving the matter bilaterally, but has temporarily halted implementation of the peace deal terms; both sides have accused the other of ceasefire violations.
Member countries of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) pledged to boost trade in their Saturday summit declaration, which coincided with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first official visit to South Korea in over a decade. The APEC summit culminated in the Gyeongju Declaration, which outlined a shared commitment and future direction for regional economic cooperation. Issues covered in the joint resolution included AI, demographic changes, cultural and creative industries, trade, investment, and sustainable growth.
Market Implications: Asian (ex-China/India/Japan) markets balanced trade tailwinds with uneven geopolitics. U.S. engagement through the C5+1 summit and APEC commitments boosted sentiment for connectivity and critical minerals, supporting Kazakh and Uzbek miners and ASEAN-linked supply chains. Xi’s visit to Seoul reinforced South Korea’s trade role, while U.S. deals with Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia signaled near-term support for rare-earth and battery-material projects. Security risks linger, as Cambodia–Thailand border tensions partially resumed, tempering earlier optimism for cross-border commerce. Overall, regional markets are expected to trade with a cautiously positive bias, driven by trade diplomacy and supply-chain resilience, though geopolitical flare-ups could cap upside. The MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index made gains this month, bringing the region’s year-to-date performance to nearly 32%.

Sub-Saharan Africa

On November 15th, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed a framework peace agreement in Doha, Qatar, following months of mediation by the U.S., Qatar, and the African Union. The deal outlines eight protocols, with two already agreed—covering prisoner exchanges and ceasefire monitoring—while six others, including humanitarian access and reintegration measures, will be negotiated in coming weeks. Although the agreement is seen as a major milestone, it is not a final peace deal and is unlikely to bring immediate changes on the ground. The conflict has killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands this year, making implementation critical to easing one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises.
In Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group agreed to a humanitarian truce proposal with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), as brokered by international mediators in early November. However, the (SAF) have not agreed to the terms and fighting continues in various regions. Meanwhile, famine conditions have been officially confirmed in parts of Sudan, specifically in the Sudanese states of North Darfur and South Kordofan, with at least 20 other areas at risk. The famine, a direct result of the ongoing civil war, is described as the largest humanitarian crisis in the world.
Incumbent president of Tanzania, Samia Suluhu Hassan, was declared the winner with nearly 98% of the vote on the first of the month, results are disputed by opposition parties. The election was marred by widespread protests, civil unrest, allegations of irregularities, and human rights abuses, including hundreds of deaths and a nationwide internet shutdown. Election observation missions from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) stated that the elections did not meet their standards for a free, fair, and credible process.
U.S. President Trump recently threatened to cut all aid to Nigeria and ordered the Pentagon to prepare for possible military action if the Nigerian government does not stop the killing of Christians by radical Islamists. The administration cited the alleged failure of the Nigerian government to protect its Christian population from attacks by groups like Boko Haram and other armed gangs, claiming Nigerian Christians face an “existential threat”. The Nigerian government has rejected the claims of targeted religious persecution, emphasizing Nigeria’s constitutional guarantees of religious liberty. Nigerian officials argue that the violence is a mix of terrorist activity, economic disputes, and criminal enterprises that affect Muslims and Christians alike.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has recently requested international mediation with Eritrea to resolve the ongoing dispute over Ethiopia’s demand for access to the Red Sea. During an address to parliament in late October, Abiy insisted that access to the sea is an “irreversible” national interest and an “existential question” for landlocked Ethiopia. Eritrea, however, views Ethiopia’s persistent demands as a threat to its sovereignty, accusing Addis Ababa of trying to provoke a regional war. Tensions between the two nations have risen since an uneasy peace deal was signed in 2018, which ended a two-decade era of conflict between the two African countries.
Market Implications: Sub-Saharan African markets are contending with conflict risks. Sudan’s RSF agreed to U.S.–Arab-led humanitarian talks amid confirmed famine conditions, with credible aid corridors key to easing East-African risk premia. Separately, the framework peace deal signed by the DRC and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels offers a tentative path toward de-escalation and improved stability in the region. Tanzania’s violence-marred election sustains political uncertainty, weighing on tourism and local credit, while U.S.–Nigeria tensions over aid threats and military planning add headline risk and pressure on the Naira. Ethiopia seeks mediation for Red Sea access, signaling potential logistics upside if diplomacy prevails, though escalation would reverse gains. Overall, regional markets are expected to remain volatile, with selective opportunities tied to infrastructure and logistics contingent on diplomatic progress, while sovereign spreads stay sensitive to security shocks.

Top News This Month

Middle East & North Africa

Latin America & the Caribbean

Asia & Eurasia (ex-China/India/Japan)

Sub-Saharan Africa

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