In Geopolitical Concerns, we track the widening rift between U.S. leadership and its allies as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza intensify, with Trump offering vague overtures to Moscow, Netanyahu escalating in Gaza, and tensions in the Taiwan Strait nearing a breaking point amid rising Chinese aggression.
In Geoeconomics, we examine the unraveling myth of U.S. exceptionalism as markets reel from Trump’s tariff regime and debt-laden tax agenda, while Poland’s surging stock market and strategic transformation offer a striking counterpoint to Western stagnation.
Global Junctions explores the labor upheaval driven by AI adoption, the global ambitions of China’s battery giant CATL, and the ideological dismantling of the U.S. EPA, highlighting how technology and politics are reshaping both economies and environments.
Finally, in Global Trajectories, we follow the fracturing foundations of energy security as rare earths become a flashpoint in U.S.-China competition, and the Global South reclaims agency in resource diplomacy, from Africa’s energy sovereignty push to oil’s enduring geopolitical sway.
Geopolitical Concerns
War in Ukraine: Putin dodges Trump threats after another fruitless conversation
Benjamin Quénelle and Piotr Smolar, Le Monde
Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel plans to take over all of Gaza
Neri Zilber, The Financial Times
Israel says it is unleashing an “unprecedented attack”
The Economist
The Risk of War in the Taiwan Strait Is High—and Getting Higher
Bonny Lin, John Culver, and Brian Hart, Foreign Affairs
On Monday, May 19, 2025, a two-hour phone call took place between the U.S. and Russian presidents. Though Trump described the tone as “excellent,” the talks produced no concrete results or joint statement. He avoided mention of new sanctions, instead offering vague hopes for trade and prosperity. Calling for direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations, he proposed the Vatican, hosted by Pope Leo XIV, as a venue, though the Pope’s pro-Ukraine stance makes him unacceptable to Moscow. Ukraine’s president said he was open to talks in the Vatican, Turkey, or Switzerland. Observers noted the U.S. president seemed to be disengaging, while Russia’s president appeared “more than satisfied,” calling the talks “useful.” Moscow offered to draft a “memorandum” for conflict resolution, possibly including a time-limited ceasefire, but without seeking an immediate end to the war. A European diplomat described this as a “masterpiece of stalling”. White House frustration is growing; the vice president admitted the U.S. is at an “impasse” and may scale back diplomacy if progress stalls. Meanwhile, a bipartisan Senate group is proposing harsh new sanctions, including a 500% tariff on Russian energy exports. In Gaza, Israel is escalating its offensive, announcing plans to seize the entire territory to defeat Hamas. On May 19, Israeli forces ordered Khan Younis residents to evacuate ahead of an “unprecedented attack”, adding two divisions for a total of five. Limited aid, like baby food, was reintroduced under U.S. pressure. Israel’s prime minister acknowledged starvation risks, with officials warning they couldn’t back the war amid a humanitarian crisis. In Doha, mediators are brokering a potential two-month pause, but Hamas demands a permanent ceasefire and refuses to disarm or exile leaders.
Separately, tensions are rising in the Taiwan Strait, where China denounces Taiwan’s president, elected in January 2024, as a “separatist” pushing the island toward war. China’s posture is more aggressive and militarized than in previous crises, driven by fears of permanent decoupling. State media accuse Taiwan of militarization, while Chinese hawks push for a blockade or military force. Since his election, China has conducted three major exercises, including an April 2025 naval maneuver that brought ships within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan. The PLA now operates with the Coast Guard and maritime militia, rehearsing blockade operations. Near-daily incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone are the norm, with 3,075 sorties in 2024—an 80% increase from 2023. U.S. officials stress these are not drills but rehearsals. Reported divisions within the U.S. administration heighten risk, as Beijing sees uncertainty in U.S. resolve. Analysts expect Taiwan’s president could pursue bold independence moves by 2027, ahead of the next election. That year also marks China’s deadline for the PLA to be ready to seize Taiwan, raising fears Beijing—more confident and less patient—may provoke a crisis. The Taiwan Strait remains volatile, and unclear U.S. signaling raises the risk of escalation.
Geoeconomics
Is the Age of American Exceptionalism Nearing an End?
David Robella, Bloomberg
Trump Tax Cuts’ Cost Estimated at $5 Trillion to $11 Trillion
Steven T. Dennis, Bloomberg
Poland: the ignored stockmarket superstar
The Economist
Following weekend talks in Geneva, a surprisingly favorable trade deal was announced on May 12th, 2025, with the United States agreeing to reduce “reciprocal” tariffs on China from 145% to 30% for at least 90 days, while China has agreed to a similar reduction. This followed President Trump’s April 2nd tariff hike of 34%, which quickly escalated to 84% and 145%, creating an unwanted near-embargo. China’s trade envoy Li Chenggang framed the deal with the saying “Good food is never too late,” as Beijing also lifted its ban on Boeing jets and hinted at easing rare-earth export curbs. Chinese media hailed the agreement as a “great victory” and proof that America had “blinked” under pressure from falling markets and public frustration. While state outlet Xinhua was measured, nationalist voices like Hu Xijin were jubilant. On WeChat, users called the U.S. a “paper tiger,” emboldened by praise from the global south as Xi Jinping met Latin American leaders on May 13th. Banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan raised China’s 2025 growth forecasts to 4.6%-4.8%, as April’s 21% export drop to the U.S. was expected to stabilize. Markets responded positively on May 12th, with the S&P 500 up 2.6% and the Hang Seng up 1.7%, though the latter dipped 2% the next day. Despite the optimism, Chinese officials feared Trump could reverse course, prompting exporters to rush shipments during the 90-day window.
The deal reflects a broader geoeconomic shift where states increasingly use economic policy for power projection, diverging from the neoliberal era. This change is not solely Trump-driven but structural, with countries prioritizing relative global position over domestic welfare. It aligns with proposals like the “Mar-a-Lago Accord,” promoted by Stephen Miran, Chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, which seeks to weaken the dollar. Miran argues that the dollar’s reserve status inflates its value, undermines exports, and drives offshoring. Critics counter that this overlooks key facts: reserve demand centers on Treasuries, not all U.S. assets; nations can sell existing foreign holdings; and reserve currency issuers like the U.S. (1960s–70s) or UK (1800s–1914) have run current-account surpluses. They also point to the 2024 U.S. fiscal deficit of 6.4% of GDP, larger than the current-account deficit (under 4%), suggesting fiscal policy—not the dollar—is a stronger deficit driver. Automation and U.S. economic strength also shape trade dynamics. As such, Miran’s case is seen as a “flawed diagnosis,” making tariffs a questionable remedy. Still, the trend is global: the ECB is developing a digital euro, Saudi Arabia is building a national tech stack, Japan is leveraging Treasury holdings, and industrial policy is resurging.
Global Junctions
The AI Hiring Pause Is Officially Here
Walter Frick, Bloomberg
China’s battery giant eyes world domination
The Economist
Jonathan Mingle, The New York Review
As companies across the globe embrace artificial intelligence to boost efficiency, the impact on human labor is growing more pronounced. On May 17, 2025, Bloomberg reported that Microsoft laid off 6,000 employees—mostly in software engineering and product management—even as demand for software continues to surge. Industry experts like Brookings’ Molly Kinder and Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom see this as a turning point: AI is now writing over 30% of code at Microsoft and Alphabet, displacing human coders and driving a broader hiring slowdown. Companies such as Intuit, Expedia, Coca-Cola, and Palantir report major gains in productivity thanks to generative AI, and even firms like Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, Shopify, and Duolingo are signaling reduced headcount plans. As uncertainty looms over global economic conditions, firms are doubling down on automation, suggesting a permanent shift in how work is done.
At the same time, other tech giants are doubling down on scale and ambition. On May 20, 2025, China’s CATL—led by Robin Zeng—raised nearly $5 billion in Hong Kong, the largest share offering this year. Despite a 10% drop in 2024 revenue, the world’s largest EV battery producer grew profits by 16% and now earns 30% of its income abroad. CATL continues to expand into energy storage, AI data center batteries, and heavy-duty electrification, outpacing rivals with over $2.6 billion in R&D spending and 40,000 patents. Meanwhile, in the U.S., EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin is rapidly dismantling the federal environmental regulatory framework. Since March 12, Zeldin has announced 31 deregulatory actions, halted emissions reporting, and targeted the agency’s scientific infrastructure—moves the Environmental Protection Network warns could cause 200,000 premature deaths. As tech reshapes markets and governments alike, the role of policy, automation, and geopolitics in shaping the future of labor and industry is becoming harder to ignore.
Global Trajectories
Global supply chains threatened by lack of Chinese rare earths
Edward White, Ryan McMorrow, and Harry Dempsey; The Financial Times
Washington’s Energy U-Turn Is Good News for Africa
Ted Nordhaus and Vijaya Ramachandran, Foreign Policy
The Price of Oil Has Always Been Both Personal and Political
Philip Delves Broughton, Bloomberg
This week, three major geopolitical developments have underscored the shifting balance of global energy and industrial power. In Africa, the Trump administration’s second term has spurred a policy overhaul at the World Bank, pushing it to reconsider its bans on nuclear power and gas financing. At the Powering Africa Summit, U.S. officials denounced past Western environmental restrictions as neocolonial and pledged full support for African energy sovereignty—winning praise from African leaders who have long opposed fossil fuel limitations, citing their harm to economic development and infrastructure. Meanwhile, OPEC+ production decisions, particularly by Saudi Arabia, continue to influence global oil prices. The legacy of oil as a tool of political power persists, with strategic moves echoing past oil shocks and shaping both U.S. foreign policy and domestic energy costs.
Simultaneously, U.S.-China tensions have escalated after China imposed export restrictions on key rare earth elements vital to electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced weaponry. The move was a direct response to new U.S. tariffs and has triggered widespread disruption among global manufacturers, including Tesla, Lockheed Martin, and Volkswagen. Although China has issued limited export licenses, the opaque process and strict end-use certifications—intended to limit military applications—are amplifying concerns over Beijing’s geopolitical leverage. Analysts warn that these disruptions may persist beyond the current 90-day tariff ceasefire. This latest standoff, coupled with renewed Western urgency to diversify energy and materials supply chains, reflects the increasingly strategic nature of resource control in the global order—whether it be oil in the Middle East, gas in Africa, or rare earths in China.
