Commentary/Blog

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: September 2, 2010 |

The Day After: The New Silk and China

Our commentary last Monday August 30th outlined the present circumstances surrounding China. Our September newsletter discussed the facts that may lead to a Chinese collapse. This commentary discusses, the day […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 30, 2010 |

Financial Crisis, Part III: This Time Made in China; Act I: The Day Before

In 1979, a movie came out starring Jack Lemmon, Jane Fonda, and Michael Douglas. The title of the movie was The China Syndrome. The movie – in the spirit of […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 27, 2010 |

Recent Real Estate Concerns and Waterproofing a Portfolio

Over the course of the last few days we have been hearing renewed concerns in the real estate sector. We would like to take this opportunity to outline a few […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 23, 2010 |

Dum Spiro Spero in the Land of Commodities: The Case of Copper

Cicero is famous for several things, among which is the “Dum Spiro Spero” quote, implying that hope dies last. For weeks now, my colleagues and I have been contemplating drafting […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 19, 2010 |

The Economic Outlook: Still Looking for the Roses Among the Thorns

It seems that the economic slowdown is taking root. The consensus forecast for the Philly Index that portrays manufacturing activity for the Eastern part of the country was expected to […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 16, 2010 |

Financial Infertility: From Euphoria to Paralysis

As readers of our publications, presentations, and commentaries could confirm, for quite some time now we have been talking about the dangers of over-collateralization, especially of collateralizing paper-assets a.k.a. financial […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 12, 2010 |

On Emerging Markets, Fed’s Recent Announcement, Bond Yields, and the Postman’s Bell

James Cain’s book The Postman Always Rings Twice is an allegory of greed, passion, judgment, and even divine intervention. Frank (the novel’s main character) got away with murder the first […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 9, 2010 |

Manufacturing a Credible Irrationality: Slush Funds, August Memories, and a Prelude to the Chinese Case

In our June newsletter, we announced that in a few months we will publish our research on what we believe to be a Chinese bubble. In that issue we showed […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 5, 2010 |

From the Great Moderation to the Great Recession

The period from the mid 1980s to the middle of 2007 is known as the period of great moderation, when inflation was low and stable, unemployment also was low, utilized […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 3, 2010 |

On Credit Contraction and Deflationary Pressures

The following is a series of thoughts about the threat of deflation knocking at the door of the U.S. economy. The U.S. economic growth is most dependent on the consuming […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: July 29, 2010 |

Waking Up From a Dream: An Assessment of Recent Events and Emerging Indicators

The stress tests for Europe’s banking system have come and gone and now we feel obliged to provide you with our take. We prefer not to trust the fox guarding […]